Aviation Week sees strong fleet growth despite supply bottlenecks and higher MRO costs

Aviation Week’s new 2027 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast projects continued growth for global aviation over the next decade, even as supply chain issues, delayed retirements and engine maintenance costs pressure airlines. The report says Airbus is extending its narrowbody lead over Boeing while MRO demand climbs to $1.77 trillion globally.

Why it matters: - Aviation Week’s forecast points to a bigger global commercial fleet, but airlines will pay more to keep older aircraft flying while new jets arrive slowly. - The report says those pressures are reshaping delivery schedules, retirement timing and maintenance spending across the industry. - Western Europe is set to become the largest annual MRO market during the forecast period, which shifts where maintenance demand is concentrated.

What happened: - Aviation Week released its 2027 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast, a decade-long view of the global air transport market. - The forecast was built by Aviation Week Intelligence forecasting teams using independent projections and data analysis. - The report says commercial aviation continues to grow despite supply constraints and rising aftermarket costs. - Aviation Week also said the 2027 Military, Business Aviation and Helicopter Fleet & MRO Forecasts will be released in October.

The details: - Global firm orders for new aircraft are above 18,600, the highest backlog level in the report. - Commercial deliveries in 2027 are expected to top 2018’s annual total, which has not yet been matched. - Annual deliveries are projected to rise beyond 2,200 in later years as OEMs work through supplier, quality and certification problems. - A larger share of new deliveries will replace aging aircraft, especially in North America. - The forecast implies a 3.3% global in-service fleet growth rate over the decade. - MRO demand is projected to reach $1.77 trillion globally, with 3.6% compound annual growth, excluding inflation. - Engine maintenance alone is expected to generate $928.9 billion in demand. - That engine maintenance demand is tied to more than 100,000 overhaul events worldwide and nearly 59,000 life-limited-parts replacement events. - Narrowbody aircraft account for 74% of the projected 21,600-plus global deliveries. - Airbus is expected to keep its narrowbody lead over Boeing, with the A320 family projected to exceed the 737 in-service fleet by about 2,500 aircraft by the end of 2036. - The forecast says roughly 2,000 older aircraft that normally would have been retired are still flying because new aircraft deliveries have lagged demand. - About 3% of the total fleet, mostly from North American carriers, is expected to hit a retirement threshold by mid-decade. - Legacy engine parts suppliers may face more pressure in the second half of the decade as green-time components and used serviceable materials flood engine markets. - The forecast combines fleet counts, projected aircraft changes, utilization data from in-house flight data and segmented MRO cost analytics. - Aviation Week said the report captures market demand and industry trends globally, regionally and across aircraft families. - The company said the forecast includes the impact of economic and macro trends on fleets and maintenance costs.

Between the lines: - The report suggests supply-side problems, not weak demand, are the main brake on faster fleet renewal. - Older aircraft staying in service longer boosts maintenance spending now, but it also delays the normal retirement cycle that supports parts suppliers. - Engine durability issues on popular new narrowbodies and constrained MRO capacity are adding cost pressure for airlines. - Fuel price shocks could amplify those pressures if they persist, according to Brian Kough, Senior Director, Forecasts & Aerospace Insights, Intelligence & Data Services. - Kough said at least 2,000 older aircraft are flying that normally would have been retired. - Kough also said supply chain, labor, quality control and certification issues have slowed OEM production enough to keep support systems under strain.

What's next: - Airlines and OEMs will be watching whether production ramps can catch up with demand and ease pressure on retirements. - MRO providers are likely to face continued volume growth as older fleets stay active longer. - Investors and suppliers will also be tracking the expected retirement wave around mid-decade and the effect on engine parts markets. - More detail is available through Aviation Week's fleet forecast information.

The bottom line: - Aviation Week sees a healthy commercial aviation decade ahead, but the path runs through higher maintenance costs, delayed retirements and continued supply chain strain.